News and Insights

FINN PARTNERS GENERAL ELECTION SNAPSHOT – WEEK 3

June 21, 2024

This election campaign has been labelled as “dull” and “boring” by many commentators. They have a point. After the short-lived excitement following the manifestos, this week was remarkable for the unremarkable, Reform, SNP and Green manifestos aside.

But the last 24 hours have seen a dramatic turn for the Conservative Party, with the national outlets covering two major stories this morning.

MRP polls – Three new MRP projections in the past two days have forecast the biggest Labour victory, and the largest Conservative defeat, in British political history. One is particularly damaging, predicting that the PM could be set to lose his seat, alongside high-profile Tories such as Jeremy Hunt and Grant Shapps. The news about inflation dropping to 2% target from 2021 could have brought some relief but it got lost in the noise.

Betting scandal – Laura Saunders, the Conservative candidate for Bristol North West – more importantly, the wife of the Conservative Party’s director of campaigning, Tony Lee – is facing an investigation by the Gambling Commission for betting on the timing of the General Election. Sunak’s parliamentary aide, Craig Williams, is also under investigation after he bet on a July election date. Labour is now calling for the Prime Minister to suspend the two prospective candidates from campaigning. One of Sunak’s protection police officers was also arrested over alleged bets on the timing of the election.

If the results of the polls are far from encouraging for the Conservatives, the investigations into the behaviour of candidates and people close to the PM project a deeply damaging image of the Party. At least Conservative Campaigning Headquarters (CCHQ) has decided it was best to delete the X advert featuring scenes from a roulette wheel with the slogan: “If you bet on Labour, you can never win.”

This week, both leaders were interviewed by Nick Ferrari and received a lukewarm reception, with Rishi Sunak perceived as more negative. Tonight’s debate in York will almost inevitably focus on the polls and allegations above, leaving the PM and his reputation open to further bruising.

POLLS & NEXT PARLIAMENT MAKE-UP

The Savanta poll commissioned by The Telegraph and published last night shows a dramatic reduction of Conservative seats, with Labour on track to win as many as 516 seats. The poll predicts that Reform would win no seats despite a surge in the opinion polls. However, it is unclear what the real impact that Farage’s candidacy is having on the campaign and whether it will help Reform gain seats.

Whilst the other two polls give less disastrous forecasts, talks of a landslide are not necessarily good news for the Labour Party, who are concerned that fewer people will turn up to vote, convinced that the result is a foregone conclusion.

(Source: Savanta)

SECTOR-BY-SECTOR

FINANCIAL SERVICES

UK fund managers believe Labour could relax fiscal rules and expand borrowing plans, provided that funds go towards stimulating the economy. Labour has underpinned its economic policy with steadiness, with Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves keen to manage expectations about spending plans. However, investors have suggested that loosening borrowing constraints might be necessary to avoid starving the economy of much-needed investment.

SUSTAINABILITY

Labour pledges to ease planning restrictions for onshore wind farms, in a bid to boost its renewable energy credentials. On Wednesday, Shadow Energy Secretary Ed Miliband spoke at an energy conference and linked the loosening of wind farm regulation to the Party’s manifesto commitments to bring down household utility bills and create jobs.
An independent analysis from think-tank IPPR questioned Labour’s clean energy plan. The report, published on Tuesday, suggests the party’s plans for state-led spending on renewable energy are still a cut to investment.

TECHNOLOGY

The Green Party promises Digital Bill of Rights. The Green Party manifesto outlined the opportunities provided by artificial intelligence (AI) and the need for strong data protection regulations. The party has pledged to push for the UK to be a leading voice on standards “for the rule of law and democracy in digital spaces with a Digital Bill of Rights to ensure independent regulation of social media providers”.
Mobile UK and the Mobile Infrastructure Forum have published a six-point planning framework ahead of the General Election. In a joint report Failing to plan, planning will fail both groups have called on all political parties to step up on their commitments to delivering national connectivity up and down the country.
‘No hallucination’ there is an AI candidate on the ballot for the UK election. Steve Endacott is the independent candidate for the Brighton Pavilion constituency. When voters go to the polls next month they will get the chance to elect what is being billed as the world’s first AI lawmaker. People can ask AI Steve questions or share their opinions on Endacott’s policies on its website, during which a large language model will give answers in voice and text based on a database of information about his party’s policies.

IMMIGRATION

Those earmarked for Rwanda flights will be transitioned into the asylum system under Labour. The Government’s signature Rwanda deportation policy will certainly be on the chopping block if Labour wins power. The Party’s manifesto commitment is to end the use of migrant hotels in a year.
Concerns over high levels of immigration are front-of-mind for many voters, including the traditional Conservative Party base in southern England. A POLITICO voter analysis in Dover found many residents were critical of the Government’s efforts to reduce immigration, and some labelled migration as their top policy concern. Expect Reform to do well in this part of the country next month.

POSTED BY: Carolina Gasparoli